Client: GreenWay group
Scope: National Motorway Company (NDS) tender, Slovakia
The challenge
GreenWay was evaluating participation in a large public tender issued by Slovakia’s National Motorway Company. The tender covered 35 motorway rest areas split across three packages. On paper, the locations were strong. In practice, the requirements were heavy.
Each site required long-term commitments to high power infrastructure, with a minimum of 300 kW for passenger vehicles and 400 kW for truck charging. The question was not whether the locations were attractive, but whether the mandatory cost base could be supported by realistic utilization in a Central European market that is still maturing. The core decision was simple and difficult at the same time. Do the numbers justify the investment?
Our approach
Zoniq was asked to provide an objective assessment of utilization and revenue potential across all 35 locations and help GreenWay define a rational bidding strategy. We combined large scale market data with GreenWay’s real operating experience.
Data foundation
Our models are trained on more than 20 % of European DC charging locations. For this project we incorporated traffic volumes, turn-in ratios, proximity to alternative rest areas, ratings and review density, and the quality of on-site amenities.
Calibration with real operations
To avoid optimistic greenfield assumptions, all baseline estimates were validated against GreenWay’s actual utilization data from operating sites in Poland and Slovakia. This allowed us to apply realistic scaling factors based on site characteristics.
Locations with full amenities (fuel, food) performed nearly 2x better (multiplier of 1.57) than basic rest areas (multiplier of 0.81).
Long-term forecasting
Because the tender implied long term commitments, the focus was on future performance rather than today’s demand. We delivered multi scenario forecasts for daily kWh utilization across all locations, covering pessimistic, average, and optimistic trajectories. This made the risk profile of the required high power installations explicit.
The outcome
The results were unambiguous. Even under optimistic assumptions, the projected revenues did not justify the cost base implied by the tender requirements. The infrastructure was systematically over specified relative to expected utilization. For example, even at high-traffic locations like Zeleneč, the projected average daily utilization was estimated at approximately 353 kWh, which is insufficient to recoup the investment on short- and medium-term. Average performance of packages of locations was even lower, ranging from 171 to 225 kWh per site per day.
Based on this insight, GreenWay chose to submit a deliberately low bid, anchored in financial discipline rather than competitive signaling. As expected, the bid did not win any of the packages, as competitors priced significantly higher. From a capital allocation perspective, this was the right outcome.
By defining the economic ceiling with validated data, GreenWay avoided locking long-term capital into assets where the risk return profile did not make sense. The decision preserved capacity for investments with stronger fundamentals and clearer paths to profitability.
This case illustrates a recurring pattern in public EV infrastructure tenders. The biggest risk is not missing out on a site. It is committing to infrastructure that the market cannot realistically support.
